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Real Estate - A Tale of Two Ulsters
Word Of Mouth Is The Sole Key To Sales Growth, Though Some Feel The Reval Will Initiate Changes

REGIONAL – Ulster County continues to be split, north and south, as far the real estate market is concerned. But there are a couple of forces that may yet unite them.

First some interesting statistics, courtesy of Harris Safier of Westwood Metes & Bounds, which operates out of Stone Ridge.

The good news?

"Last year," said Mr Safier, "there were ten percent more homes sold in Ulster than in the previous year."

Because Ulster was never as pumped up by the real estate bubble of 2003-7, it also didn't suffer as much of a collapse effect, either. Foreclosures and short sales were never as prominent in Ulster's market as they became in that of Orange County, which did see a marked run-up in prices in the bubble period.

Safier does note that the average selling price is down about 3 percent and so is the median price. "That's pretty stable, but it does reflect more home sales for first time buyers, too," he added. "Inventory is down this year but we do expect a lot of homes coming onto the market. A lot of people seek to move in the spring, especially older folks. The outlook is very positive for another solid year. My estimate is an increase of between 5 percent and 10 percent in home sales this year."

Set against this broad upside, however, there is the sharp split between the north and the south portions of the county. Susan Barnett, a broker for Gary DiMauro Real Estate (and former WAMC radio host), is specific about the difference.

"Northern Ulster, down through Stone Ridge and Gardiner, is one thing. Honestly, I rarely get anyone looking for property as far south as Accord. Woodstock and Saugerties are very different markets from those in south Ulster," she said. "What is happening in north Ulster is that we're finally seeing the activity we've expected for about ten to fifteen years. That is, people from New York City leaving the city and coming up here to live full time."

This effect has been noticed in hot locales, like Kingston. Barnett shared an anecdote on that phenomenon.

"I just had a closing on a property last week; the buyers were from New York. I stopped to buy a bottle of wine to celebrate, and it was in Rondout, Kingston — the Kingston Wine Company. And the people there, they came up from the city about fourteen months ago and started that business," she reported. "Other clients are moving up here from Brooklyn but different areas have different strengths and things that people are looking for. Stone Ridge tends to be about privacy. Kingston, the buyers are in their thirties and early forties and they're looking for community."

Barnett added that "people have been beating the drum for Kingston for a decade or more. For south Ulster to get more activity it will take a while, but it should come. It's closer to the city. But the southern part of the county needs to come up with something that buyers find attractive. What I'm seeing is the power of word-of-mouth. What you need is to have a few people who fall in love with an area and start the buzz. You need some pioneers."

So, where are they?

One hopeful sign has been the purchase of the old decrepit Homowack resort, now renamed the Spring Glen Resort, by the New York City-based company Beautiful Earth. This may begin the pioneering process.

Some of our most local realtors are split on this, with some saying they have not seen any buyers coming from the city, and others beginning to note a few.

Safier noted that the property revaluation in Wawarsing is just breaking now.

"That's going to have a lot of folk looking to sell. Some properties there haven't been on the market in a very long time," he pointed out. "The hope with the revaluation is that this will equalize things for people across the town and village, but a lot of people are going to have a big shock."

This coming year may give us a good idea of what to expect.



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